Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Financial Security of Ukraine

Abstract

The article examines the special conditions of the influence of macroeconomic factors on the country’s financial security with guidelines for the stabilization of the development of the financial system of Ukraine. Directions for assessing qualitative changes in macroeconomic factors while maintaining stable rates of reproduction of financial flows and possible measures for self-determination of national interests in conditions of external influences have been grounded. A methodology has been developed and a simulation-analytical model of stabilization of financial security has been substantiated, based on the established functional relationships between macroeconomic factors, which, based on the interaction of identifiers of threatening «symptoms» of financial system imbalance, determine the country’s development guidelines. Static approach is used to determine the threatening symptoms of the financial system, which are under the influence of crisis situations, and are investigated using dynamic methods. It has been proven that the financial system, based on the elements of the institutional infrastructure and typical strategies of financial operations of economic entities, has a constructive, destructive and neutral nature of spreading to the model orientations of their development and requires the study of micro- and macro-factors of financial security, taking into account the interests of all participants of this system. The connection between macroeconomic factors and signs of the country’s financial security is substantiated. Different level system indicators of financial security are singled out, which allow analysing chaotic mass phenomena in the country’s financial system. Identifiers of typical macroeconomic factors influencing the level of financial security of the country with the orientation to the development strategy are presented. In a discrete period, the influence of factors of the banking and non-banking spheres of the financial market, debt, budget, currency and monetary credit spheres on the financial security of Ukraine have been analysed. The integrated level of financial security of Ukraine has been determined based on the set of sub-indices of macroeconomic factors. A model of the actual and forecast volume of currency accumulations in the pyramid of financial security of Ukraine has been presented, which represents a balanced financial system based on the movement of financial flows, to cover the budget deficit and strategic development of the country.